Yes I do indeed see a decrease in interest in live music. I am not sure if my view of this is biased by the fact that I live in New York, where, as you say, “you literally can’t swing a dead cat without hitting a free open mic or venue that pays performers next to nothing” (usually it’s actually nothing, they just get the tip bucket or a part of that if they are lucky) but to me it does seem like people are less interested in live music and less motivated to go out to shows…

In the last ten years or more, I have seen a lot of music venues close everywhere… I moved to the US ten years ago and before that I was living in a rural part of Southern Italy. There, in the middle of nowhere, a thriving punk/hardcore scene existed and between 1994 and 1998 there was a punk/hc/rock concert almost every weekend (which believe me, for that rural godforsaken place was a LOT!)… Then around 1997 and 1999 all (and I mean ALL) of these venues closed their doors forever, one after the other, dropping like flies killed by swine flu or something, for no apparent reason (except an obvious lack of interest from concert-goers)… In ‘99 I packed up and left for the US and over the 10 years I spent here I saw the same thing happening again… Of course it’s NYC so not all the venues closed but a lot of them did… Some new ones opened as well of course but I don’t think that that number rivaled the number of the ones closing…

In NYC real estate prices were a major factor in the closing of some of these places, but the second biggest factor was the decrease/loss of interest from the people… And if nobody goes out to concert how do we expect venues to stay open?
Has anyone noticed that after 9/11 the phrase “have a nice flight” turned into “have a safe flight”? Well in a similar way the ritual and sometimes just habitual “thank you” that the band screamed into the mic at the end of a show, turned into a conscious and heartfelt “thank you for coming out” at the beginning, somewhere in the middle and at the end of the show… I’ve actually noticed this change and the reason for it, in my opinion, is the fact that it is much harder to get people out and interested.

So, yes Ty, there are a lot of open mics and venues with un(der)-paid bands, but HOW MANY PEOPLE are going to those venues?
There are some places (like Rockwood Music Hall in NYC’s Lower EastSide) who manage to be packed every night of the week, but there are other places (like the Back Fence in NYC’s West Village) that are often so empty that if you swung a dead cat in there you might not hit anyone at all!

As Ty correctly points out there is an oversupply of music talent, which is why it is harder to get people interested in anything and to get people to go anywhere. It’s like the internet, there is so much to choose from that a lot of people give up overwhelmed and just choose not to choose and turn to something else (movies, anyone?).

Concert tickets are becoming insane and are making concerts unaffordable for a lot of people and yet I just read on this month’s issue of Mix Magazine that Live Nation was one of the only companies that made huge quarterly profits in spite of this economic downturn (guess which industry is the other one that seemed to be unaffected? the hollywood industry… again: movie, anyone?).

Supply and demand has something to do with it but you can’t compare open mics to the concerts that LiveNation puts together… that’s just like saying that if Radiohead gave away their album for free and made a profit anyway, any unknown indie band that gives away their album for free will break even… LiveNation is a major player and it’s also a monopoly… if to that you add the fact that they are merging with TicketMaster it should come as no surprise if big concerts become more expensive.

This is increasingly going to turn attending a rock concert into the same thing that attending the opera has been for many years: an elite source of entertainment, unaffordable to most people and only available to those who can… almost like in earlier centuries, in a way. I wouldn’t be surprised if in the future at rock concerts you’ll see less ripped and worn out t-shirts and more male and female fashionistas that are there to be seen rather than to listen.

I was talking to my friend John Zorn the other day about the challenges of running a venue (John opened the Stone, in NYC, to support the local downtown music scene and I have been thinking for a while myself about opening a music venue in NY). He is pretty much the only person I know that runs a music venue without trying to or caring about making a profit. He does it ONLY for the music, 100% of the door money goes to the band and the Stone doesn’t even sell alcohol. He does a benefit concert every month to pay for the rent and that’s it. The reason he choose this formula (not retaining any money, giving all the money to the artists, not selling anything) is because he truly cares about the music and wants to bring the music to the people. Unlike a LiveNation event and many other concerts, the Stone’s concerts are actually priced affordably ($10) and the price is the same every night. True dedication to music, John should be an example to many!

Anyway, I digressed, sorry about that…

I agree with Ty about democratization, oversupply and (of course) arguments about recording quality, people’s abilities, form vs content, form and content and so on and so forth. I think we are on the same page there.

Distribution is most certainly an enormously important factor in all of this. Traditional retail-based distribution is however dead and the new models of distribution tie in with what I said about filtering. If the new value of free that Chris “Mr. Long Tail” Anderson talks about at length is tied in with zero shelf costs, then the ability for consumers to filter the unlimited supply stored on these virtual shelves becomes paramount!

So, to conclude, we might be victimized by ourselves, but we can be empowered by the situation too! It’s up to us. As always it’s a case of making the best of it.
The traditional record labels and distributors are both dead and we don’t need them to do what they used to do. We can still use them, but they are probably going to become promoters and marketers more than anything else… They might become street teams, of sort.
I do have to disagree with Ty on the fact that we’ll be making a living from selling and distributing our product (if you wanna call it that). I don’t think money will come from sales which is why I wrote that post in the first place. People are too used to free and there is no going back I am afraid.

Distribution and filtering will be the name of the game and hopefully (wishful thinking here) they will trigger increased interest in concerts to the point where concert tickets will go down and music will be available to everyone. Because ultimately it should be taste for certain musical genres and the ability of a band to put up a kick ass live show that should be the final decision-making filter for an audience member, not price!

I think maybe the last significant decrease in big ticket live music was due to how much it cost to put a big show on the road. Paying people and transportation costs were the problem. BTW, for Leonard Cohen at Merriweather, outside lawn seats are $70! One site is listing “down front” seats at $1800!

So sometimes there are huge divides between the finances of national, regional and local acts. That remains basically the way it’s always been. One thing has changed. Music has been democratized.

Did the democratization of music cause the problem, or did the problem result in the democratization. Which came first doesn’t really matter. What matters is that individual musicians have been empowered by the evolution of recording technology. The evaporation of mid-tier recording studios, or their migration to becoming “recording schools” is proof of this. This has both positive and negative aspects.

While it’s good that more people are empowered to record, not all of them are capable of making recordings as good as the previous generation of recording engineers. Some say, “Who cares! It’s the content that matters!” OK, fine, but the lack of real technical knowledge and lack of attention to detail is part of the slippery slope that results in some pretty gnarly music. Regardless of where you come down on this, there’s a ton of product; an oversupply.

Then there’s distribution. Distribution via the Internet rivals and surpasses the efforts of traditional record companies. While the freedom of Internet distribution is very heady, allowing ANYBODY to be sampled internationally in seconds, this is not always a good thing. If you’re giving it away, you’re diluting the value of music.

As it has always been, it’s about creating an audience. That means putting butts in chairs, either in local clubs where food and drink allow the owner to make a profit or on American Idol where the show appeals to the masses and the masses are then sold to the advertisers. American Idol, and it’s various offspring, are an ancient but wonderful Darwinian invention with roots that probably precede the Greek and Roman Coliseums.

While appealing to the masses in highly produced spectaculars, the better performers survive. Then, after the judges decide who has the chops, the masses get to vote in a popularity contest. What a great deal for the…well, lets call them Entertainment Companies, because there aren’t many Record Companies anymore. These “reality” shows deliver eyeballs to the sponsors and at the same time, create artists with pre-built MASS audiences. WHAT A BEAUTIFUL MACHINE! So the big company model not only still exists, it evolves and does quite well.

I’m sorry. What was the question? The future of the music business? Oh, right. Put butts in seats, deliver eyeballs and/or ears to sponsors, make product and get it distributed so we can sell it and make a living. Isn’t that what record companies used to help do? Yes. It is. So we can do without them if we accept the responsibility of doing it ourselves.

That used to be the job of the record companies. The job hasn’t changed. The only thing that’s changed is who DOES the job. Us. Now, we are faced with the tough decisions of how to sell and for how much. For the most part, we are pitiful shop keepers. Getting a consensus of where to put the price and when to say “no” is not likely to happen. But one thing is clear, the value of music will remain depressed as long as it remains commoditized and distributed at little or no cost. If I had my way, I’d like every musician to grow a pair (ladies welcome) and start building some self-respect so they feel good about asking more for their efforts. Without that, we will continue to be victimized, with only ourselves to blame.

Regards,

Ty Ford

And as a songwriter/artist I’m always about getting a tiny taste of something than a big taste of nothing!

Great ideas Marc!

-Ray Palagy

I believe it’s up to the artists! I’ve often stated that the artists (including me) need to come together and create the “new” model. I think in ways the new model is already here but like many things in life we just don’t see it until it bites us on the ass. I think part of that new model could be the artists individual website. Who said fans/customers have to go to a central location for all the music they want. To me that’s still taking a bite out of the old model! I.E. going to a record store. Or maybe if we must have a central location, it could be were artists sign up their website to a central online listing location. LIke CD Baby, but instead of sending their CD’s they submit their website. There by the fan searches the artists, not the songs, that could potential make the search process easier. With a model like that, who’s getting paid? The artist and the company that the artists listed their website on and not the major players. Until they find a way to control that!

I don’t know, I don’t have all the answers, I’m an old guy like you! But I’m historical at 46 years old, I remember 8tk tape and 1/4″ reel to reel!

I will say this Marc, I do feel that it should be the job of the recording artist coming together to brainstorm the new music business model. If not, we will continue to not get our proper share of the capital pie!

David

Rokhsan

Walter